Every month, Praesago scores 2292 postcode districts across England and Wales using 30+ government data sources. Land Registry transactions, police.uk crime records, EPC certificates, ONS migration data, planning applications, and two dozen other feeds are compressed into a single trajectory score for each district. The score measures direction, not value. A high score means fundamentals are improving. A low score means they are not.

This month's headline: crime data is doing the heavy lifting. 7 of the top 10 risers were driven by the Safety domain, which tracks year on year recorded crime trends from police.uk. The areas climbing fastest are not the expensive postcodes chasing demand. They are places where the baseline is quietly shifting.

The national average sits at 50.2/100. That is essentially unchanged from last month. Only 5 districts clear 70/100. The bulk of the country, 1142 districts, sits in the 50 to 70 range. 142 score below 40.

What is Driving the Numbers

7 of the top 10 risers this month were driven by Safety. This domain tracks year on year crime trends and crime rates per 1,000 residents. A strong safety score means recorded crime is falling relative to the national picture. This does not mean these areas are low crime in absolute terms. It means the direction of travel is improving.

Biggest Risers

SA41 (Crymych) led the table, climbing +8.1 points to 54.9/100. The median property price here is £224,000, placing it in the 76th national percentile.

The list splits interestingly. 3 London postcodes appear (EC4Y, EC3M, WC2E), all driven by Demand Pressure. 5 of the risers have median prices below £300,000 (average £246,300). Improvement is happening at the affordable end of the market.

District	Area	Region	Median Price	Score	Change	Driver
SA41	Crymych		£224,000	54.9	+8.1	Safety
TA17	Hinton St George	South West	£285,000	40.1	+5.8	Safety
EC4Y	London	London	£865,000	44.7	+5.7	Demand Pressure
EC3M	London	London	£625,000	50.1	+4.3	Demand Pressure
WC2E	London	London	£865,000	51.6	+3.8	Demand Pressure
NE67	Chathill	North East	£202,500	50.0	+3.8	Safety
BN20	Eastbourne	South East	£380,000	55.2	+3.4	Safety
L29	Liverpool	North West	£230,000	54.3	+3.3	Safety
PL30	Bodmin	South West	£290,000	43.6	+3.2	Safety
AL9	Hatfield	East of England	£450,000	46.8	+3.2	Safety

Biggest Fallers

WC1B (London) saw the largest decline, dropping 4.6 points to 43.8/100 (median price: £865,000).

The geographic concentration is striking. 7 of the 10 biggest fallers are in Wales. Welsh rural postcodes tend to have smaller sample sizes and more volatile month on month movements. A single quarter of crime data or a handful of transactions can swing the score significantly in areas with low population density.

District	Area	Region	Median Price	Score	Change
WC1B	London	London	£865,000	43.8	-4.6
LL47	Talsarnau		£192,500	47.8	-4.3
LD8	Presteigne		£245,000	45.4	-4.1
W1W	London	London	£865,000	45.0	-3.8
LL45	Llanbedr		£192,500	54.8	-3.7
LL74	Tyn-Y-Gongl		£223,000	42.1	-3.7
LD4	Llangammarch Wells		£245,000	51.1	-3.5
SA32	Carmarthen		£190,000	38.0	-3.3
SA42	Newport		£224,000	43.7	-3.1
CA19	Holmrook	North West	£177,500	56.5	-3.1

Regional Breakdown

Average trajectory scores by region, ranked highest to lowest.

Region	Districts	Avg Score
North West	261	56.9
North East	115	53.2
West Midlands	220	51.0
South East	371	50.8
East Midlands	137	50.5
Wales	194	49.9
East of England	240	49.2
Yorkshire and The Humber	210	49.2
London	268	47.3
South West	276	45.4

North West leads with an average of 56.9/100 across 261 districts. South West sits lowest at 45.4/100. The gap between top and bottom region is 11.5 points.

Signal Spotlight

The single biggest domain swing this month came from Safety in SA41 (Crymych), which jumped +60.2 points from 38 to 98/100. Median house prices here: £224,000.

Other notable Price Opportunity moves: BH3 (Bournemouth, +15.3) and LL27 (Trefriw, +11.7).

Other notable Demand Pressure moves: EC3M (London, +15.3) and WC2E (London, +12.9).

Other notable Safety moves: TA17 (Hinton St George, +59.0) and CA23 (Cleator, +40.3).

What Caught Our Eye

Wales accounts for 7 of the 10 biggest fallers this month. That looks dramatic, but context matters. These are rural postcodes (Talsarnau, Llanbedr, Llangammarch Wells) with tiny populations and thin transaction volumes. A single month of police.uk data or a handful of Land Registry sales can move the needle disproportionately. The scores are real, but the signal to noise ratio in these districts is lower than in urban areas with thousands of monthly data points.

Meanwhile, 3 City of London postcodes (EC4Y, EC3M, WC2E) made the risers list on Demand Pressure. London's overall average (47.3/100 across 268 districts) still lags the national mean, but pockets of the capital are starting to show recovery in footfall and transaction data.

A theme worth watching: 5 of the top 10 risers are in districts where you can buy a median priced property for under £300,000. The most expensive riser in the list is EC4Y at £865,000. The cheapest is NE67 at £202,500. Fundamentals tend to improve first in areas where prices haven't yet responded.

The 11.5 point gap between North West (56.9/100) and South West (45.4/100) is worth noting. That spread has been widening over recent months. The North West continues to score well on demand and transformation metrics, while the South West faces headwinds from seasonality and affordability constraints.

No districts changed gentrification stage this month. Stage transitions require sustained movement across multiple signals over several months, so stability here is normal.

How We Score

Praesago's trajectory score is a composite of six domains: Price Opportunity (21%), Demand Pressure (27%), Transformation (19%), Economic Baseline (14%), Safety (10%), and Risk Ceiling (9%). Each domain draws on multiple raw signals from government and open data sources including Land Registry, ONS, police.uk, EPC records, and planning portals. Scores range from 0 to 100. A higher score means an area's fundamentals are improving relative to the national picture. Full methodology at praesago.com/methodology.

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UK Property Trajectory Report: June 2026